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| #214024 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 PM 05.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE ESTIMATES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH. IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT. IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED. THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND. HOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 22.6N 65.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W 105 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W 115 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W 110 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W 110 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 115 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA |
