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| #214086 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 06.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 JOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS IT ADVECTS ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSEST TO BAM-SHALLOW. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS BECAUSE OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE... REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...AT DAYS 3 AND 4 ALL GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM JOSEPHINE'S REMNANTS. DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE AT THE LONGER RANGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND KEEPS JOSEPHINE DISSIPATED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.8N 36.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 38.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.5N 40.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.7N 42.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 44.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 48.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB |
