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| #214349 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 06.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR. ONCE IKE MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW. HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 21.2N 70.9W 115 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.5W 125 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 78.0W 95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 80.0W 80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
