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| #214742 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 08.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008 ...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA... AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA |
