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| #215315 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:13 AM 10.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED. THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
