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| #215472 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 10.Sep.2008) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 0300 UTC THU SEP 11 2008 AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 86.7W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 50 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 375NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 86.7W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N 88.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 92.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.7N 94.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 36.0N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 86.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
