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| #215474 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 10.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 ...LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD... AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES... 1090 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...86.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BERG |
