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| #215521 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 11.Sep.2008) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 0900 UTC THU SEP 11 2008 AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 87.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. 50 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT.......220NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 87.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.7N 89.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.3N 91.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N 93.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.4N 95.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...125NE 110SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 37.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 87.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN |
