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| #215745 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 11.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 ...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES... 715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES ...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BERG |
