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| #215749 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:10 PM 11.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008 IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL...BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE. INSTEAD...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. SFMR RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST. IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE COASTLINE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE...AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.3N 90.4W 85 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.5N 94.1W 95 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 95.7W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/0000Z 39.0N 88.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
