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| #215896 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 12.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.2N 92.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
