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| #216050 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 12.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008 ...LARGE HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARD GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON GALVESTON ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS... AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.6 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1200 AM CDT AND 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/READ |
