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| #216091 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:58 AM 13.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 ...EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON....LANDFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. AT 2 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING. DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76 MPH...122 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH...159 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME |
