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| #216139 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 13.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008 THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST JUST AFTER 0700 UTC. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 952 MB. THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN... SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11. IKE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.7N 95.0W 95 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
