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| #216168 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:58 AM 13.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 600 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 ...EYE OF IKE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O`CONNOR TEXAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF KINGWOOD TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. IKE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH... 160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 91 MPH...146 KM/HR...WHILE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 82 MPH...131 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 961.1 MB...28.38 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...30.1 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
