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| #216208 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 13.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 ...IKE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...IKE STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR TRINITY TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...AND ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...IKE COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR IN LUFKIN TEXAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A PRESSURE VALUE OF 968.5 MB...28.60 INCHES...WAS REPORTED AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI... ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...31.0 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
