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| #216209 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 13.Sep.2008) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008 AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 85SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT.......125NE 200SE 125SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 425SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 95.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
