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| #216292 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 13.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 ...IKE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES REMAIN A THREAT... AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF TYLER TEXAS. THIS IS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980.7 MB...28.96 INCHES...WAS MEASURED AT TYLER TEXAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGE VALUES OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...32.4 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
