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#216324 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 13.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 51A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 700 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 ...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND TORNADOES CONTINUES AS IKE HEADS FARTHER INLAND... AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AS IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHERN LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...33.3 N...94.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |