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| #216380 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 13.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008 IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE. RADAR VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW AT ABOUT 982 MB. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS 025/21. EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 34.3N 93.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 37.4N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 15/0000Z 42.2N 82.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 15/1200Z 46.8N 71.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/0000Z 51.0N 59.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
