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| #216424 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 14.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SURFACE DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IKE...WITH AN AREA OF 25-35 KT WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE FIRST SIGN OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WITH IKE PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A LARGER LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/26. IKE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE LARGER LOW AT VERY HIGH LATITUDE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IKE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 36.4N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 14/1800Z 40.4N 87.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 15/0600Z 45.6N 76.5W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 15/1800Z 50.0N 65.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/0600Z 55.0N 52.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
