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| #218602 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 25.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.5N 68.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
