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| #218668 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 25.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT...BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO HIGH. IN ADDITION...A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM...HWRF...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.8N 68.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 68.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 68.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 32.4N 68.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 36.3N 68.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 44.5N 65.5W 60 KT...INLAND...NOVA SCOTIA 96HR VT 30/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER BERG |
