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| #219023 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 27.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KT FROM THE SFMR. WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER SFMR VALUES LOOK SUSPECT...THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COVERED A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING KYLE TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RANGING FROM 995-999 MB. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE INCREASE IN THE FORWARD MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. KYLE HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/20. KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF... AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND CALL FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EITHER NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA. SEEING THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWED A RIGHT SHIFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT SHIFT LAST NIGHT...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALL FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 48 HR AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THAT TIME. KYLE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE KYLE REACHES COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 18-24 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...WITH THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 34.3N 69.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 37.2N 69.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 41.3N 68.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 45.3N 66.6W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/1800Z 48.3N 65.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 72HR VT 30/1800Z 51.5N 64.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 96HR VT 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
