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| #219071 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 27.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008 KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES DECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE HURRICANE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST. THIS FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 36.2N 69.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 43.7N 67.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 65.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 48HR VT 30/0000Z 49.2N 64.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0000Z 51.0N 63.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 96HR VT 02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
