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| #219253 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 28.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE...AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. CONSEQUENTLY...KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/23...WHICH IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF KYLE IS BEING ERODED BY THE LARGE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE BYPASSES KYLE TO THE NORTH ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MISSED THE MORE NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING...AND AS A RESULT I'VE PLACED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z UKMET. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 44.8N 65.9W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 64.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 30/0000Z 49.5N 63.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/1200Z 50.6N 63.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 01/0000Z 51.5N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
