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| #219586 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 30.Sep.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 I WAS TEMPTED TO TERMINATE ADVISORIES ON LAURA TONIGHT SINCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...LAURA CANNOT BE CALLED A REMNANT LOW YET AND IT IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL ENOUGH TO BE CALLED ONE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45 KNOTS. LAURA IS MOVING OVER COLD WATERS AND IS BECOMING INVOLVED WITH COLD AIR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LAURA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOUR OR LESS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE LARGE HOLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER IS 015 AT 14 KNOTS. LAURA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN TURN EASTWARD ADVECTED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 43.6N 48.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 45.5N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 02/0000Z 48.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/1200Z 52.5N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0000Z 55.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z 56.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0000Z 56.5N 13.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
