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| #219622 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 01.Oct.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 500 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008 LAURA IS NOT QUITE FRONTAL ENOUGH TO BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL... AND WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IT HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTION-LESS LONG ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A REMNANT LOW. SO...THIS IS NOT THE LAST ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM TAFB AND TROPICAL 35 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 00Z SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. LAURA IS ENTRAINING COLD AIR ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THEREFORE...BARRING AN UNLIKELY CONVECTIVE FLARE UP...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14. LAURA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE MAIN PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 44.8N 47.6W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 01/1800Z 47.0N 46.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 02/0600Z 50.2N 45.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/1800Z 53.6N 42.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0600Z 55.6N 36.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z 56.5N 22.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0600Z 56.5N 7.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
