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| #219682 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 01.Oct.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008 ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION REMAINS...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FOR LAURA TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. I RATHER LIKE THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER'S TERM POST-TROPICAL...WHICH SIMPLY MEANS NO LONGER TROPICAL...TO DESCRIBE WHAT LAURA HAS BECOME. THERE IS NOT REALLY ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF FRONTAL STRUCTURE YET TO CONSIDER LAURA EXTRATROPICAL IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE...AND SOME USERS MIGHT INFER A WEAK SYSTEM IF WE USED THE TERM REMNANT LOW...WHICH IS MOST-COMMONLY APPLIED TO DECAYING SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 KT...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER. A TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME REINVIGORATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF LAURA IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS. OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER... SHOWS THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...BUT FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN CARRYING A TRACK ONLY OUT TO 72 HOURS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 46.5N 46.5W 40 KT...POST-TROPICAL 12HR VT 02/0000Z 48.9N 45.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 02/1200Z 52.2N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/0000Z 55.0N 39.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1200Z 56.0N 33.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1200Z 56.5N 20.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
