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| #220513 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 06.Oct.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM. ACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.4N 95.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 19.6N 96.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 97.4W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH |
