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| #220564 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 06.Oct.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008 500 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008 A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS... TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 61 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER THIS EVENING. INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MARCO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE. WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.5N 94.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 95.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH |
