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| #220652 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 07.Oct.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008 WITH NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON... THE INTENSITY OF MARCO IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN THE AIRCRAFT WAS THERE LAST...SO I'LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 55 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OVER WATER...SO SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR MARCO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. AS WE HAVE NOTED PREVIOUSLY...HOWEVER...SMALL CYCLONES ARE PARTICULARLY SUBJECT TO LARGE AND MOSTLY UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN INTENSITY. EXAMINATION OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0100 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SEPARATES MARCO FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MARCO ON BASICALLY THE SAME TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP MARCO OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 96.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 60 KT...JUST INLAND 24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
