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| #221782 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 12.Oct.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2030Z HAD BELIEVABLE 35 KT VECTORS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. WITH NO APPRECIABLE LET UP OF THE SHEAR INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW FAIRLY SOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. IF NANA DOES NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED...IT PROBABLY WOULD INTERACT MORE STRONGLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND TAKE A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.6N 38.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 40.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 17.2N 41.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.9N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
