|
Show Selection: |
| #221816 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 13.Oct.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 NANA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2332 UTC MEASURED 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT OVERPASS...NANA MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...I WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR NOW. THE GLOBAL MODEL'S 200 MB WIND FORECASTS SHOWS 25-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT THE SHEAR TO LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. NANA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. NANA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WHILE SITUATED TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THAT GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 16.6N 39.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 40.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 17.7N 41.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 42.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
