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| #221873 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 13.Oct.2008) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 70.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
