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| #221878 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 13.Oct.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 AS EXPECTED...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON NANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT DOWNGRADING NANA TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 6 KT. NANA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 16.8N 39.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.1N 40.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 17.6N 41.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
