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| #221939 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 13.Oct.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NANA HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE TODAY AND THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND NANA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON. IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NANA REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT SEEMS BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THAT CONVECTION DOES NOT TRY TO REFORM. NANA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8 KT. NANA OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED TO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.5N 40.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 18.1N 41.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.9N 42.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
