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| #221992 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 13.Oct.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED RANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME WESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.6N 69.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 14.8N 69.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 68.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.0N 66.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 63.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 58.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
