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| #222030 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 14.Oct.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE AREA. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONETHELESS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 130/2. OBVIOUSLY THE STEERING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RADAR IMAGES FROM CURACAO SHOW RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION PASSING OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 14.3N 69.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.6N 68.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.3N 68.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.6N 67.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 18.3N 65.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.6N 62.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 26.0N 59.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 31.0N 57.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
