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| #222084 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 14.Oct.2008) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 55SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 69.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
