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| #222088 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 14.Oct.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE. HOWEVER...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD APPEAR LIKELY. OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.6N 83.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 83.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 85.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.3N 87.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 16.2N 89.0W 55 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
