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| #222130 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 14.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008 ...OMAR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...AND FRANCE...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO. OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND OMAR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM ...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE PROLONGED SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...68.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
