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| #222151 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 PM 14.Oct.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 260 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.2 N...83.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK |
