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| #222185 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 14.Oct.2008) TCDAT5 HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT. IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
