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| #222187 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 14.Oct.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS...BUT ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND SOONER...POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...A GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.2N 83.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 85.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.2N 87.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 88.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK |
