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| #222278 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 AM 15.Oct.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 CONVECTION AROUND THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ITS CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS BUOY/HONDURAS STATION OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ON THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT. A SLOW MOTION WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DRIVE THE CYCLONE INTO HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THREE DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASED INITIAL MOTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE RATHER UNCERTAIN YESTERDAY...MAY BE ISSUED WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE TODAY. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION...I.E. LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...AND A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED HWRF AND GFDL MODELS' TRACKS REMAINING OFFSHORE LONGER THAN UTILIZED HERE ALLOW THOSE MODELS TO INDICATE INTENSIFICATION UP TO A 40-45 KT TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS REMAIN JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION STILL IS CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS...A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL IF THE CENTER AND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINBANDS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF HONDURAS AND PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS CALL FOR DISSIPATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN FOUR DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.8N 84.5W 25 KT...ON THE COAST 12HR VT 16/0000Z 15.8N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 16/1200Z 15.8N 86.3W 35 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 17/0000Z 15.6N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.4N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART |
