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| #222295 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 15.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008 ...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN... SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE. A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION... OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.3 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
