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| #222323 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 15.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008 ...OMAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN... SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION... OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
