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| #222328 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 15.Oct.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING NEARLY NON-EXISTANT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON IN OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42056...A SHIP REPORT...AND QUIKSCAT/ASCAT PASSES. AT LEAST A PORTION OF THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE MODERATE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE SHIP H3VR DID REPORT 33 KT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS OBSERVATION MAY BE A FEW KT HIGH AFTER EXAMINING THE SHIP'S HISTORY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 30 KT...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOW INLAND OVER NE HONDURAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH HONDURAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALLOW FOR A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S POSITION AND MOTION - 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SPURIOUS TRACK OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF...CONTINUES THE CYCLONE OFF TOWARD THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THIS SELECTED CONSENSUS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST TRACK...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS TO KEEP THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND MUCH OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER LAND...NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGE STATISTICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO ITS NORTH MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED FOR AN INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO AND THEN COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THREE DAYS. ONE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF THIS CYCLONE MAY REDEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS TIME. THE MAIN RISKS FROM THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE THE HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS THAT MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.5N 85.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.4N 86.4W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.3N 87.7W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.3N 88.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.7N 89.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART |
