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| #222385 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 15.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008 ...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN. OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OMAR WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS OMAR MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/HR...WITH A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. INTERMEDIATES ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM AND 300 AM AST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
